Marleen Cobben

Metapopulation theory and models have been used to understand population survival in fragmented landscapes and to model optimal designs of habitat configuration. However, population genetics of metapopulations is relatively poorly developed, and the possible effects of climate change on individual fitness and subsequent effects on metapopulation diversity have not been considered. In this project, that is part of the Climate changes Spatial Planning programme (Klimaat voor Ruimte), we will investigate the genetic processes in fragmented populations under climate change scenarios, notably taking into account the expected temperature increase and the increase in weather variability. For the Dutch National Ecological Network (EHS), we want to analyse what the effects are assuming its current design, and advise on the type of adjustments if these are found to be necessary. We will extend METAPHOR, a stochastic, spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model for demography of fragmented populations, with a genetic module to explore the following questions:

Questions to be adressed:

1. What is the effect of habitat fragmentation and metapopulation dynamics in terms of loss of neutral genetic diversity and what is the time lag in this effect?

2. What are the preconditions for range shifts in response to increased temperature and what are the effects of this process in terms of loss of neutral genetic diversity?

3. What are the preconditions for a process of selection and adaptation to take place as a response to increase in average tempurature and increased weather variability, two predicted components of climate change, and what are the effects of this process in terms of loss of selective genetic diversity?

4. Where and how should the spatial structure of the EHS be adjusted to facilitate range shifts and to prevent or decrease the loss of genetic diversity, both neutral and selective?

Collaborators:

Staff

 René Smulders (PRI)

 Jana Verboom (ALTERRA)

 Rolf Hoekstra

Paul Opdam (Land Use Planning Group , ALTERRA)

Related research projects

Anouk Cormont
Marleen Pierik

Klimaat voor Ruimte  link:

http://www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl/pro3/general/start.asp?i=0&j=0&k=0&p=0

EHS link:

http://www.minlnv.nl/portal/page?_pageid=116,1640949&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&p_node_id=1806462

René Smulders link:

http://www.pri.wur.nl/UK/research/research+themes/Biodiversity/

PRI link:

http://www.pri.wur.nl/UK/

Jana Verboom link: http://www.alterra.wur.nl/UK/research/Specialisation+Landscape/Ecological+Models+and+Monitoring/?wbc_purpose=Basic&WBCMODE=PresentationUnpublished

Alterra link:

http://www.alterra.wur.nl/uk

Rolf Hoekstra link:

http://www.gen.wur.nl/UK/Staff/Scientific+Staff/Rolf+Hoekstra/?wbc_purpose=Basic&WBCMODE=PresentationUnpublished

Paul Opdam link:

http://www.lup.wur.nl/UK/Staff/opdam

Land Use Planning Group link:

http://www.lup.wur.nl/UK/

Anouk Cormont link:

http://www.lup.wur.nl/UK/Staff/Cormont/

Marleen Pierik link:

http://www.ncp.wur.nl/UK/Staff/Pierik